10 Minutes With Bill McGuire

I was very grateful to have had the chance to talk to the man who spearheaded the latest debate that climate change could govern the dynamics of the earth’s crust. I met Bill McGuire last week at UCL’s Hazard Research Centre to discuss his role in this debate and where it’s headed.

Having read a collection of Bill’s published articles in the field of volconology and other geophysical hazards, I was initially interested to discover how his research interests were broadened to integrate the geological consequences of climate change. He tells me that the process evolved naturally, beginning with the successful completion of his PhD that investigated the link between climate and the collapse of Mount Etna. Since then he says that “climate change is the greatest threat that the world has ever faced”, and therefore is a topic that anyone interested in the environment would be foolish to ignore. His stature at the pinnacle of his domain gives him opportunity to actively feature within the campaign to fight climate change, which he pursues out of concern for both the future and his family.

Admittedly, I had expected to leave the meeting resolutely swayed that the earth was prepped and ready to bring about colossal devastation at the hands of human ignorance. As it turns out, I learnt from Bill that scientists have received not one obvious signal globally that geological hazards are increasing in recent ‘anthropocene’ years, and it doesn’t surprise them! The debate that human-induced climate change will cause an increase in these events is purely rooted from theory and chronicled evidence. By this, I mean the well-established concept that sea level changed historically in accordance with glacial/inter-glacial cycles – in our discussion, Bill cites how in the past seismic events in Alaska and Greenland can be correlated to massive ice sheet removal of up to 30-50 km.

A valuable point made by Bill that I had previously not come across in my research was that way in which sea level rise can stabilise faults. Having written in a former post about how the Japanese tsunami has been linked to climate change in the media, I now endeavour to rebuke that statement given this fresh insight. In actual fact, Bill illuminates how it is more plausible that a greater weight of water lying on a fault at a subduction zone would increase pressure therefore stability. This mechanism operates at coastal regions and would decrease the frequency of tsunamis, which supposedly proves the Japanese tsunami was not a man-made hazard. Danger is not completely averted as when one section of the fault is strengthened, the instability can move further along the fault. Whilst rising sea levels can suppress the ‘big ones’, more earthquakes can be pushed inland (normally where major cities are situated) and potentially cause greater damage. Similarly, an influx of sea water at laterally moving faults – such as the San Andrea fault – would effectively unclamp the fault reducing frictional force and allowing it to slide easier.

Finally, Bill proudly explains how he instigated this controversial topic with a series of workshops that lead to a wave of academic papers including his compilation of articles for the Royal Society. Much of the progress made in this realm of science can be directly attributed to Bill McGuire; he organised a conference in 2009 and is planning another one for next year. A testament to the success of his work is the first ever inclusion of an ‘Extreme Events Report’ in the upcoming IPCC report released on 18^th November. Currently, Bill is reviewing the 5^th assessment for 2013/14 with the hope that a similar coverage of extreme events will be in the contents.

Needless to say, my meeting with Bill was a pleasure and I would like to thank him for both an informative discussion and for his generosity.