The Melting Alps

It’s time to sidestep away from tectonically-driven hazards and examine the future implications of climate change on mountain environments. By investigating the Eastern European Alps, Keiler et al. (2010) have observed the increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards; namely rock falls, debris flows, landslides and avalanches. These aforesaid changes originate from the climatic impact on land-surface stability. As identified in the Alps, anthropogenic global warming has successfully been correlated with long term changes in high-alpine temperature, precipitation, glacier cover and permafrost. 

Alpine systems and high relief areas suffer from being particularly sensitive to climate change due to:

• High elevation snowcover causing feedbacks that amplify climatic impacts
• Albedo
• Heat budgets
• Slope angle and aspect
• Sediment availability
• Slope moisture supply

Aside from regional changes and significant seasonal differences, temperature in the Alps since the nineteenth century has exhibited an increase that is twice as much as the global average (Vavrus, 2007). Estimates for future temperature change expect a further increase by an average of 0.3-0.5^oC.

Monitoring of geomorphological hazards on the Alps has been ongoing for decades, amounting to a rich archive of incidences when climate forcing has directly impacted the region. The chronology of past events shows that products of slope instability can be attributed to a combination of both human activity and climate variability (Stoffel et al., 2008). Human activities – including land management – play a minor role in comparison to the force exerted by relentless climate change.

The emerging warm, dry winters can be effectively paralleled to the mass of glaciers in the Alps. The glaciers had been slowly advancing up until 1980, which saw a shift to full retreat. The melting of glaciers can be tied in with the loss of permafrost across the Alps’ extensive mountain range. This supportive layer is responsible for reinforcing the mountain’s structure and its absence has already been held liable for deadly rockfalls in Matterhorn, Switzerland and avalanches in Austria. In response to the mass rescue of 70 mountaineers in Matterhorn, the International Permafrost Association met to conclude that: 

“…the ground temperature in the Alps around the Matterhorn has risen considerably over the past decade. The ice that holds mountain slopes and rock faces together is simply disappearing. At this rate, it will vanish completely – with profound consequences”.

In the last ten years, the Alps have given scientists a preview of what might be expected in the future – the 2003 heatwave and the 2005 flood are indicative of the extreme events that might shake alpine regions. However, so far the hazards have been concentrated at high altitude where the settlements and infrastructure is small scale. Unfortunately, this also means that public awareness is limited. The effects of global warming have recently begun to gain attention as a very serious threat to the flourishing tourist industry in alpine regions. Normally, global climate models (GCMs) provide valuable predictions on future climate change but high fluctuations due to regional differences mean downscaled results are often plagued with uncertainty (Reichler & Kim, 2008). Course spatial resolution within the models is ineffective when dealing with the variable climatological effects of the mountainous Alps. Models also fail to simulate climate feedbacks and the extent of permafrost that controls much of the crysopheric system. Thus, it is apparent that further research is essential in order to understand these immensely complex mountain systems.